Salvage Radiation Nomogram Updated

This is exciting stuff for people contemplating salvage radiation after prostatectomy.

https://consultqd.clevelandclinic.org/2015/10/updated-nomogram-predicts-modern-outcomes-after-salvage-radiotherapy-following-radical-prostatectomy/

"A contemporary update of a 2007 predictive nomogram for salvage radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy offers a modernized forecast of cure compared to its predecessor."

"The updated 2016 nomogram takes into account the more recent trend of treating patients at lower PSA levels than in the past (“early SRT”). Randomized trials published since the original nomogram was created have demonstrated the benefit of early SRT in high-risk patients."

Various things on my mind..

It's Halloween. Here's hoping you have more treats than tricks this year.

My PSA 9 years, one month after salvage radiation (SRT) ended, is still less than 0.1.  I had an employer health screen earlier this month and checked it.

In the meantime, I have developed heart palpitations (preventricular contractions), a murmur (mitral valve prolapse) and right bundle branch block. None of these are currently dangerous in my case, according to my cardiologist, but they have my attention.  They're a reminder that despite apparently beating prostate cancer, I'm still mortal, still in late middle age, and one day the Reaper will come mowing for me.

Here's a question that I once asked, and I see asked all the time on discussion boards like HealingWell and CancerForums.net:

"I had a prostatectomy x years ago, and now my PSA is rising.  It's at 0.4, up from 0.1 a few months ago.  Should I get radiation? I hear there's only a 50/50 chance it will work."

Well, how old are you?  That's a key question.  If you're 85, you may well want to skip radiation, see how your PSA tracks, and look into hormone therapy if things progress far enough.  If you're 45, I would run, not walk, to the best radiation oncologist I could find.  The reason is that if you're young enough for prostate cancer to progress and kill you, you need to pursue a cure.  Hormone therapy (ADT) won't cure you. If you're elderly, it might be as good as a cure, but if you're young, it's only going to--maybe--stall the cancer.  A 50/50 chance?  It's more nuanced than that, if you want to look into nomograms. Most people don't.  When you get prostate cancer under 50, your youth is a double-edged sword. You will heal faster from treatment, but you have decades for it to come back and...BOO! get you. 

These days, compared to when I was treated, there is a chance you can locate mets with a sensitive scan, and attack those spots specifically. But your PSA has to advance significantly first, and the higher your PSA before salvage radiation, the lower your chances for success (google Andrew Stephenson and salvage radiation outcome).  

Sometimes a layperson or even a doctor will advise the patient that they can wait until PSA gets to something like 2.0 ng/ml.  But that's not wise.  (Again, look up what Andrew Stephenson at Cleveland Clinic found out in long-range studies).  

So if you're a young guy, say, 50 or younger, and you are diagnosed with prostate cancer, my nonprofessional advice to you is to strongly consider a treatment with a known track record, like surgery.  It seems to have a slight edge in long term success for younger patients--less so with older ones.  And, youngster, if your PSA starts climbing after surgery, look into salvage radiation and don't delay. 

If you've had a prostatectomy, salvage radiation is probably going to be a walk in the park. So don't get overly anxious about it. It's a painless, easy treatment. If you have side effects, they'll probably be mild and temporary.  There's no guarantee it will work, but let's say your chances are 50/50.  Isn't that better than zero?  With any luck, you'll be like me, looking forward to some spectacular cardiopulmonary event to shuffle off the mortal coil.

Cue Haunted Mansion music.  (It's Halloween, after all).

My History of Prostate Cancer.

A long time ago, in a pelvis far, far away:




Age 38
8 Dec 2000
bothered by frequent urination, went to primary care phys.
PSA 4.5
PCP said prostate was boggy
referred to Urologist
Biopsy Ordered

Jan 2001
Biopsy:  negative for cancer, findings consistent with prostatitis

Age 39
16 Jul 2001
PSA 4.1

20 March 2002
PSA 6.1
START Cipro 500mg daily for 3 wks, Motrin 800 mg daily

Age 40
30 May 2002
PSA 5.7
Free PSA 11.9%
CONTINUE Motrin
Urologist believes probably prostatitis

30 Sep 2002
PSA 7.3
Free PSA 11.3%
START Avodart
STOP Motrin
ORDER Biopsy

November 2002
Biopsy:  negative for cancer, but PIN III found

31 Jan 2003
PSA 2.2
Stop Avodart

Age 41
03 Sep 2003
PSA 4.9
Restart Avodart

23 Jan 2004
PSA 2.2
Continue Avodart

Age 42
24 July 2004
PSA 2.5
Continue Avodart

26 Jan 2005
PSA 3.3
Continue Avodart

29 Apr 2005
PSA 2.9
Continue Avodart

Age 43
11 Jan 2006
PSA 4.8 (on Avodart)
Abnormal DRE
Biopsy ordered

7 Feb 2006
Biopsy finds cancer
PIN also found
No perineural invasion
Gleason 3+4
20% on right
5% on left

Age 44
14 April 2006
SURGERY
Robotic prostatectomy
Positive margin at apex and left lobe
No perineural invasion identified
Extension into capsule, but not through
Gleason 3+4
70% of gland involved
stage t2c NX MX


16 May 2006
PSA less than 0.1

15 Aug 2006
PSA 0.2

14 Dec 2006
PSA 0.6

REFERRED FOR RADIATION

Day before radiation commenced, PSA = 0.7

Radiation Jan-Mar 2007.  PSA quickly fell to less than 0.1 and remains there as of early 2013, now age 51.
No side effects from radiation at this point.

Latest Salvage Radiation News

A small, in-house study from the Graduate School of Medicine in Kyoto, Japan found multiple, independent risk factors for recurrence after salvage radiation (SRT). These were:

• Gleason at or above 8
• PSA nadir (low point) after SRT at or above 0.04 ng/ml
• Negative surgical margins

They found that 77.8% of patients in their study with zero risk factors were free of PSA progression five years later.  50% of patients with one risk factor were progression-free, and only 6.7% of patients with two or three risk factors were progression-free at the 5 year mark. 

In my own case, I was okay on the Gleason and surgical margins, but I don't know my PSA nadir to that level of specificity. 

This was an interesting little study, but I trust Andrew Stephenson's much larger one a lot more.

Kyoto blossoms. Photo: jmurawski  Creative Commons license.

Another independent validation of the Stephenson nomogram

The nomogram developed by Dr. Andrew Stephenson was independently validated again, last year, by doctors at Loyola University.  The "Stephenson nomogram" predicts the outcome of salvage radiation and is the basis for the interactive tool on the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) website.

The researchers followed men for a median of 71 months and found no significant difference between the outcomes for their patients and what the nomogram predicted.  At a median time of 71 months, 46% were progression-free (that is, their PSA had not risen after salvage radiation.)